Egypt 2012: Morsi and Abolfotoh are expected for a second round

According to many monitors, the turnout rate for Egypt’s election is expected to be the highest ever as it draws long lines in polling stations around the country.
For many observers and analysts, Mohamed Morsi, the main Islamist contender for Muslim Brotherhood Movement and Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh, formerly a prominent figure in the same movement are expected for a final round matchup which will eventually gather most major parties and figures around presidential candidate Abolfotoh as next Egypt’s president.
Ahmed Shafiq, a secular candidate who played prominent roles during Mubarak’s era, is reported with chances for a third place.

Key notes for the second round:

  • During the second round, Mohammed Morsi will appear to the world, or will be presented as the candidate for a Movement while Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh will be seen as the candidate for all Egyptians.
  • Assuming that Muslim Brotherhood Movement will vote massively and in large for his contender, the rate will never reach 40%.
  • Some observers argue that out of fear to live with the Muslim Brotherhood another “National Democratic Party” experience, many voters will likely cast their vote for an independent and moderate candidate such as Abolfotoh.
  • Copts are also expected to vote massively in favour of Abolfotoh in the second round although their votes are now split over many candidates.
  • Some candidates such as Amr Moussa and Sabahi will probably support Abolfotoh and call their followers to vote for him. In exchange, they will be appointed to key positions within the new administration.

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